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Originally Posted by CSC
I think Drugs addressed this yesterday and he is probably the best person here that can explain the raw numbers discussion so I am not even going to try, the problem with the 'if' scenario is we will never know, we will never know how fast he could have run from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 on a lightning fast track, once again my opinion is he is not a 1 1/2 horse or certainly not as effective at a 1 1/4.
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DrugS might be the best person to explain the raw numbers things but it doesn't matter as the raw number or any number thing is not the way to go. First, races are complex events that are not merely explainable in terms of how fast they're run (either in total or in sections). If these were time trials, then I'd be all for speed (and even pace) figures; but they're not. These races are about how they're played out. There are a number of 'types' of races and subsets of these types. Once you look at a few thousand of them, like I have, you start to get a sense of what's 'normal' and what isn't. Which horses ran well and which didn't. I could put a ton of effort into trying to fit races within my methodology, as all the figure makers apparently do, or I could let the horses in the race indicate to me what exactly is happening.
Thinking of these races in terms of numbers fails for a number or reasons: 1) numbers bias one's interpretation of the race: fast splits are supposed to indicate one thing, slow splits another, YET, we constantly (especially on poly and turf) see that these supposed truisms are really wise tails, as there are countless counterexamples. Refer back to the slow pace biased interpretations of the Gotham, for example. 2) numbers is just one way of looking at the race; that set is a subset of a larger set, the race itself, and thus is not comprehensive.
You of all people should be aware of some of this **** as you play quite a bit of turf and poly. You should be aware of how important bursts are in races and how taking a break from one of these bursts while the others are all out is a HUGE advantage. (The Sartinistas get some of this, as do the Match Up guys, but they don't do it within the context of the race.) This is exactly what SB did. And, you should also be equally aware of what moving prematurely does to a horse.