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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
A key to winning, IMO, assuming the requisite skills are there, is confidence in your ability. Strange as it may sound, I don't want any freebies in the game. Even if I lose as a result of 'bad luck', I really don't to win because of 'good luck'. I realize, obviously, that 'luck' in racing describes common events and one cannot win without accepting it as just part of the game. I don't want any freebies because I need to be able to reproduce results in order to be successful. As such, extraordinary events (a year altering score, for example) are not something I'd rely on.
Getting back on topic, if I'm alive in the last leg of and exotic, however many numbers, and I need to bet more because I'm afraid to lose, even if within the throes of a losing streak, I really shouldn't have bet that leg as this is strong evidence that I didn't have an opinion in that race.
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I'm not a big proponent of hedging, but I disagree with this. I do agree with most of what you're saying, though. Personally I'd rather bet the last leg of a PK4 or whatever the same way I would've bet it had I lost in an earlier leg, but there are certainly times when there are horses we haven't included for whatever reason that we can foresee winning enough to make a small hedge worth it or perhaps even profitable. Or, what if we have discovered a bias over the course of our sequence and now want to use the likely aided horse(s) that we didn't include originally?