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Originally Posted by sdjcom
my view is if the pace is too slow , say 49.00 1:14,for 3/4 MTB and others will be closer to the leader with an extra 1/4 mile to run than the derby. the leader CM or whoever might have some thing left after a slow pace however, no lead to capitalize on it. these late runners will run the last 3/8ths faster and if no big lead by pace-setter he's done.
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That makes sense. If the front runners go slow, then the race is turned into a contest of closing kicks. It doesn't always favor the horse in front.
The danger obviously is that if one of the forwardly placed horses like Charitable Man is able to rate on the pace, they can be hard to pass in the stretch.
With this triple crown crop, sometimes we are getting too complex with all the different scenarios.
It may just be a case of whether or not a few of these guys will "fire" over the distance, much more than the advanced things like the fractions and who benefits the most.