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Originally Posted by tector
Well, I am sure glad that you are NOT saying "MTB would have been a lock for The Belmont".
First of all, MTB almost certainly does NOT win the Preakness if RA is not in the race--in fact, he probably finishes substanitally worse. HE BEAT MUSKET MAN BY A HALF LENGTH WITH THE BEST PACE SCENARIO HE COULD HAVE REASONABLY EXPECTED. Yes, he had some traffic problems--that is what happens to dead closers. In fact, it happens MORE often to dead closers in fields without a solid pace since the field does not stretch out as much--which is very well may have happened without RA in the Preakness. In short his task would have been MUCH harder with RA out of that race.
I don't expect casual fans to understand that, but I thought posters here might get it. The idea that RA "cost" MTB a chance at the Triple Crown is laughable--in fact, she GAVE him a better chance.
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Maybe those unsophisticated casual fans understand that Hull would have run in the Preakness had Rachel Alexandra not run... thereby providing as much or more pace pressure through the early and middle portion of the race, giving Mine That Bird every bit of a chance to close into fractions he needs to be successful.
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