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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
He has now run once on a dry dirt track.....and finished 10th beaten a city block. As soon as I figure out that I was wrong I will let you know. Please stand by.
He lost the Derby by seven lengths. You are conveniently deciding that since no horse, save Mine That Bird, ran a step that day that he somehow ran well despite losing by a margin that rarely gets a finisher better than 6th ( or worse ).
Sorry if you don't like my logic. Tough sh it.
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But that's not the point. You contention was that the horse wouldn't hit the board in the Derby. Let's assume you went over to Betfair and took bets that he wouldn't. Would you have been payed off? No.
Whatever the case, in or after, the Derby, you'd have lost.
And, if you understand the dynamics of the Preakness, which you clearly do, you also can understand why the horse collapsed.
Logic is one thing. Real world facts are another.