[philcski]

Some early race thoughts...

R3 MSW: like the #4 Winter Walk, #6 Wedding Scramble, and #3 Hot Bullet first turf, all at a price. First two bred for the lawn, the 4 showed some ability in both his runs on the dirt but has low key connections so the price should hold, and the 6 showed absolutely nothing in his debut but is bred for the lawn top and bottom (although Blushing John was good on both surfaces- won a Group 1 in France as well as the Hollywood Gold Cup among other races) and is sent out by a trainer who knows something or two about winning races in MD. I had no idea Cetewayo was even a sire, he's had so few starters (4, with 1 winner), but he was a damn good turfer. Of the probable favorites, #5 Stonestreet Star is already 0-8 and failed 3 times at 8/5 or less, including a terrible run at AC where the MSW competition is pretty weak, and Mythical Hero who made a nice run to be 2nd into a slow pace but only beat the #2 Pocket Patch by a half length when he was 23-1 off getting beat 3 straight times in $25k MCL's at Philly.

R4 Schafer Hcp G3: No Advantage will probably be overlooked in here, but he got a horrible ride in the CT Classic. Didn't save any ground around the turns, ran up on heels a couple times, yet still managed to only get beat 7 lengths at 51-1 (in a photo with Commentator for 4th.) Real Merchant and Cave's Valley come out of a fast race at Belmont, but how good is that really? He was soundly beaten in that awful Excelsior with no excuse, and Cave's Valley looks better around one turn than two, I think it's between the two coming out of the CT Classic.