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Originally Posted by eurobounce
Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.
1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff
Take all that and then make a decision.
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I also look at how long the race is especially if it's more than 60 days. I have no stats/research on this, but if a horse is coming back in a sprint race I'm not as worried about it, if they're going a route i'm more inclined to give them a race while also taking into consideration what's mentioned above (trainer,works, has the horse fired well off a similar layoff, etc.)