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Originally Posted by justindew
Pioneerof The Nile was 6-1 in the Derby. In a manner of speaking, this represents a less-than-15% chance of winning.
Now, let's say you were planning to bet against POTN, yet you would have admitted before the race that if he DID handle the dirt, he was among the most likely winners. By betting against POTN, you are essentially saying "I think there is less than a 15% chance that POTN will handle dirt." (I know, I'm simplifying this for effect, but for the sake of argument...)
To put it another way, if you thought that POTN was a potential winner IF he handled dirt, AND if you felt the likelihood of him handling dirt was higher than 15%, then it is easily arguable that he DID offer value.
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here is an approximate percentage distribution of how I handicapped the race;
friesan fire = 40%
dunkirk = 12%
chocolate candy = 7%
desert party = 7%
pioneerof the nile = 7%
papa clem 4%
Join in the dance 2.5%
musket man 2.5%
ABOVE 8 = 78%
ALL other 11 = 22%
these above percentages were not conditional in any way - including POTN. As I said I believed he would be fine on dirt, I did have some question about his stamina and I didn't see him as having a lot of talent.
Friesan Fire was much the best , I felt Dunkirk had a shot to win , and after that there were 3 horses who I felt had about even chances (CHocolateCandy,DesertParty,POTN). CHocolate candy may have liked the distance a lot more than Pioneer of the Nile and was a lot better price. Desert Party could have been anything - there was a small probability that he even had enough talent to win outright and he was paying much more than Pioneerof The Nile.
IN HINDSIGHT: After the race, I obviously underestimated Musket Man . I also underestimated POTN - although not by much!, and I overestimated chocolate candy and Desert Party.
I also greatly underestimated Mine That Bird. Given Borel's tactics he would win his share of Kentucky Derby 135's should they run an infinite amount of races in some kind of time warp, and he deserves at least 15% of Friesan Fire's dominant share of the win probability.
[assigning Mine That Bird anywhere near that extra probability is beyond my handicapping skill without hindsight, Musket Man was probably my most correctable error- given that his trainer was being praised for his stamina building methods, and my knock against him was stamina.]
SUMMARY
I did include POTN on some coverage tickets where I used 5 or 6 horses in a slot. However as you can see, with my opinions he was a ripoff to use on narrower tickets and there was no contingency about the surface involved.