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Originally Posted by justindew
-I understand and respect the opinions of those who took a stand against Pioneerof The Nile in the Derby. Obviously, as a bettor, you have to draw a line somewhere. And eliminating POTN from one's wagers made perfect sense. He was among the favorites and had never run a fast figure, nor had he run on dirt. He was arguably the most logical toss among the favorites. However, those who tossed him must admit that they were tossing him based on what they suspected might happen, rather than what the horse had indicated would happen. It was a toss based almost entirely on speculation (unless you were persuaded to bet against him based on his premature moves in some of his preps). And no horseplayer can fairly say that a stand against POTN was irrational. However, in reading the arguments of some who feel that his 2nd-place finish proved nothing (or even that it reinforced their position that he's "not a dirt horse"), I have to ask what POTN needs to do to show he's likely to be as good dirt as turf and synetetic. By almost every account, he handled the Churchill Downs surface beautifully all week long. Not one professional observer with whom I spoke, be they trainers or clockers, said that he showed anything other than a strong liking for the dirt. Several even said he was a standout. When you combine this (subjective) "fact" with his 2nd-place finish, why do some people continue to insist that he is not a dirt horse? And what does that mean, anyway? Does that mean he is not good enough on dirt to win a graded stakes? A Grade I? Any race? What exactly is the criterion? Is the argument a matter of whether dirt is his favorite surface? It seems like when it comes to this horse, people are arguing different questions, such as...
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First off, I did not toss POTN from any of my tickets. But my point goes to the bolded position. I don't
think you could have gotten an accurate read on this horse based on the entirety of resume. Whether you
included or tossed, you were just doing so on speculation. He wasn't convincing in any area enough to sway
one way or another, and there in lies the issue. Since there was no basis to feel up or down on him, one can't
really gauge where he stands today.
He was off my board until IWR came up lame and the track stayed sloppy/muddy. Considering the breeding, POTN
was worth including in the mud at 6-1 or 7-1. Since the track was off, you can't yet gauge his overall effectiveness
on dirt. More than likely, he can handle it, but for now, it's still up in the air. I'd say the Derby answered some questions about him, but not all of them.