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Originally Posted by Travis Stone
I think it simply can be but will admit I'm being general about the statement.
There are no longer big longshots. Giacomo is wreaking havoc. Mine That Bird at ~50-1 is the world's biggest underlay. So longshots are, right now, being overbet.
As for the others, when you factor in the randomness of the Derby, and the uncertainty, getting just 7-2 or 3-1 on Friesan Fire is insane. If you're going to bet FF, I would skip the $20 win bet and do ten $2 exactas instead. If Mine That Bird was 50-1 in the exotics, where in my opinion the true overlays exist, I'm going to have to take-up water polo instead.
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The best horse more often than not wins the Derby. The price that you get on that horse is normally more than it should be because of the size of the field and the stupid money and you will never get the same price in the Preakness or the Belmont. I agree with Randall, the race gives value in most years. Let's be serious, there were horses in that race that shouldn't have been bet at 250-1. So a freak result happened this year, such things happen, but one must be foolish to risk their money when these longhots rarely win the race.
I believe there have been only 3 50-1 or over longshots to win the race in its history, clear risk/reward analysis says stay away from any horse at those odds, but be certain that many people are dumping money on such horses which logically has to create overlays on others. So it has happened twice in the last 5 years, it still doesn't turn the race into a bad betting race.
The only good to come out of this will be the really foolish money put on horses that have no shot in the next few years that will create overlays on horses that actually do have a shot. There will probably be no better race to bet than next years Derby.