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Originally Posted by randallscott35
That simply can't be true.
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I think it simply can be but will admit I'm being general about the statement.
There are no longer big longshots. Giacomo is wreaking havoc. Mine That Bird at ~50-1 is the world's biggest underlay. So longshots are, right now, being overbet.
As for the others, when you factor in the randomness of the Derby, and the uncertainty, getting just 7-2 or 3-1 on Friesan Fire is insane. If you're going to bet FF, I would skip the $20 win bet and do ten $2 exactas instead. If Mine That Bird was 50-1 in the exotics, where in my opinion the true overlays exist, I'm going to have to take-up water polo instead.