[Kasept]

Weather serious threat to Oaks-Derby Weekend, but you never can count on forecast in this region. Don't abandon or revise your plans unless you see clear indication of compromise to fairness of the racetrack.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #11 Custom for Carlos 5-2
Best Value: #2 Fufty Too 30-1
Next Best: #1 Munnings 6-1
Exotics Use: #6 Just Ben 5-1
Super Add: #4 Street Car 5-1


6th: 15th Aegon Turf Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Smart Enough 3-1
Next Best: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2
Best Value: #5 Due Date 12-1
Super Add: #4 Captivating Cat 8-1


7th: 24th Louisville (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Sporting move by Mosses to come here, but will be surprised if Shirreffs runs Zenyatta over a sea of slop, and race flow against the wonder mare ayway...

Best Value: #4 One Caroline 3-1
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Belle 3-1
Super Add: #3 Miss Isella 15-1


8th: 25th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

May cover ridiculous 6-5 ML fave Laragh in multis but looking to score out within race..

Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-1
Best Value: #2 Fleet Streak 20-1
Next Best: #11 Diamond Tags 10-1
Super Add: #1 Excelente 30-1


9th: 6th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cool Coal Man 4-1
Best Value: #5 Bullsbay 6-1
Next Best: #3 Mambo in Seattle 5-1
Super Add: #8 Dr. Pleasure 6-1


10th: 18th American Turf (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #5 Skipadate 10-1
Most Likely: #1 Stormallory 5-2
Next Best: #3 Battle of Hastings 3-1
Super Add: #7 Turfiste 8-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, KO-KD Dbl, KO-WRTC-KD P3, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rachel Alexandra 3-5
Next Best: #5 Justwhistledixie 5-2
Best Value: #2 Be Fair 15-1
Super Add: #4 Gabby's Golden Girl 10-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-7-10-11
9: 1-3-4-5-8-9
10: 1-3-5-7
11: 6

5x6x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve