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Originally Posted by dean smith
I understand the practice is often frowned upon in handicapping circles, but when -- if ever -- is betting two horses to win in the same race a good idea? If one of you "math guys" could break it down for me, I'd really appreciate it.
Every great once in awhile, I'll come across a race where I think the top choice(s) are very beatable and I find my top choices to win are going to post with (for instance) 8-1 and 10-1 odds.
I understand by putting ten bucks on each that I'm really now betting 4-1 and 5-1, but if I feel strongly about each having a legitimate shot to win, wouldn't everyone take 4 or 5-1 on their top choice?
Or, is their a better way to approach this situation? In other words, does anyone know the "textbook" way to play this? How would that hypothetical $20 be better used?
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The short answer is pretty simple. It's a good idea if you're getting value. I just worked out the math on a few examples and it seems to me (as expected) that you'd be much better off betting whatever horse you think is the bigger overlay. You're just diluting value by betting two horses even though you're increasing your likelihood of cashing.