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Originally Posted by King Glorious
Ok so if Spectacular Bid beat Seattle Slew and Affirmed on dirt then Seattle Slew and Affirmed went on to win grass races, you wouldn't give Bid a longer look in his grass debut?
Nobody is saying it's any kind of certainty that Pioneer will handle the dirt. I have no clue whatsoever. Let me ask you how big of a part does class handicapping play when you are looking at a race? For example, let's say Rail Trip went out and beat Commentator in the Met Mile in his next race then they decide to put him on grass for his next start. I don't know how Rail Trip will handle the grass but I do know that he's a good horse to beat Commentator. Perhaps Papa Clem and IWR both suck on synthetics and are 8-10 lengths better on dirt. Entirely possible. Same could be true of Pioneer. I'm just saying that while the synthetics can mute the form of some horses and raise the form of others, it's USUALLY not going to make bad horses beat good horses. I just think that it's not a negative that he beat them and it's not meaningless. It can only be a plus. How big of one is what's to be determined.
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no
i think my biggest problem about synthetics is most of those cali horses won't ever get a shot to run on anything else. maybe none of them really like it-but someone has to win, finish second, etc.
take the big cap-einstein was the class of the field, but since he had prior turf form, i thought he would be able to handle the surface and the competition-which turned out to be the case.
then you have a horse like sulamani-seemingly the class of the field. but the distance wasn't his best, and he didn't care for firm turf. he ran third in the arlington million, but moved up when stevens' horse veered out af the finish. but all of those factors combined were too much for the horse to overcome.
we've all seen a good horse who detested a surface overcome everything and manage to win. but i think far more often, you have a horse with proven ability on one surface who just can't get it done on another. curlin proved able only to win on dirt. he hit the board in his attempts on other surfaces-a testament to his ability i'm sure. but i think wagering wise, i'd take a horse proven vs competition and proven to be good on a surface over one who has never run on-especially if it's the derby.
also, keep in mind that every horse dapples out, works well and looks great-best shape ever! when leading up to the derby.
pioneer may end up doing just fine at churchill-but i'll take a horse that doesn't have more questions than answers.