If you're looking for tosses I'd suggest looking for horses who you don't believe are capable of improving enough to run a 103 Beyer.
Over the last 20 years the average Beyer figure earned by the 3rd place finisher in the Derby is a 103.
Only two horses have ever won the Derby without previously running a 103.
Giacomo in '05 and Sea Hero in '93
* Giacomo had run figures in the 93-to-98 range in each of his last 3 starts in much slower paced races - and on two of the three occasions over extreme speed biased tracks.
He figured to improve for a variety of reasons - from the hotter pace, to the added distance, to the much more favorable race shape, to the fact that John Shirreffs got him to work bullets of 1:23 and change and 1:11 and change in his final two Derby works ... on what was an otherwise slow poke worktab all season long.
Shirreffs is the single most lethal trainer I've ever seen when it comes to getting a horse to fire off of workouts. From '98 through '99 he went 14-for-24 with first time starters .. an other worldly ROI of $7.63 .. and many of his debut winners fired triple digit Beyers.
Since losing 505 farms .. he no longer gears horses up to run their best lifetime race 1st time out.
Notice the change in Giacomo's worktab:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...yderby_pps.pdf
* Sea Hero had never run a 103 Beyer before the Derby .. but I believe no one else in that field had either. It was the worst 3yo crop of all-time. The favorite Prairie Bayou had never even run a 100.
Not including I Want Revenge and Quality Road ... I don't like the chances of any individual horse in this field to run a 100 .. let alone a 103. Though several like Dunkirk and General Quarters have a shot at it - and at least one probably will.