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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It's statistics not math.
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I know. I'm a statistics guy (as you know already) and my 50% number was generated in the exact same fashion as yours- I just saved everyone the mundane details. Glad we're thinking on the same line of reasoning.
Here's a good follow up question. If one of them complete the exacta, does it pay over $150? I'll venture a guess that the QR/IWR exacta box is in the $60 neighborhood and anything involving the 5th choice or higher underneath is $150 or better.