04-13-2009, 09:58 AM
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Goodwood
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
Posts: 8,872
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I agree it's over 50% that at least one runs in the exacta. Since each horse is roughly 20% to win the race, I guess it's fair to say they are at least 30% to finish first or second, so both being out could be 70% squared. However, they're conditional probabilities, so if one runs out the chances of the other finishing first or second greatly increases.
Feels like 60% to me that at least one is in the number......roughly.
As for the Oaks.....it's higher.
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Math Geek!
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