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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I agree it's over 50% that at least one runs in the exacta. Since each horse is roughly 20% to win the race, I guess it's fair to say they are at least 30% to finish first or second, so both being out could be 70% squared. However, they're conditional probabilities, so if one runs out the chances of the other finishing first or second greatly increases.
Feels like 60% to me that at least one is in the number......roughly.
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Did you use a calculator? I'd hate for these facts to be "lazy and intellectually dishonest."