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Originally Posted by Dunbar
It makes sense to do what you are doing, STS. I like the fact that you are only making a 50% bigger bet even when you see a huge discrepancy from your "fair odds". If your fair odds were 100% accurate, a much bigger increase would be justified. Problem is, our "fair odds" are estimates, and it's wise to be conservative in using them.
I size my bet to win a certain amount. Say it's $Z. So, I would bet $Z/2 on a horse that's 2-1 (but only if I think the horse should be 8-5 or less). I'll bet $Z/10 on a 10-1 shot (assuming I think it should be, say, 7-1). But I will shade those bets the same way you do--betting a little more when the discrepancy from my "fair" line is bigger.
The choice of $Z itself is a reflection of my bankroll, my estimated overall edge in capping horses, and my confidence in my ability to estimate that edge.
--Dunbar
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A big puzzler thiyesterday when the entry Scat Cat an CQ hovered anywhere from 9/5 to 6/5 untill shortly before post when it went off odds on. The 9/5 was a gift it appeared. I actually thought they would go off closer to 2/5.