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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
I'll address this point because some of the others are contained within it. He held off Dunkirk because he got an absolutely perfect setup. It wasn't even about the track being speed favoring, which most seem to be focusing on (including Pletcher) or pace (as the rest of the field went backwards). It was about Dunkirk having to run on the turn, significantly, wide and on his own, with no help from the field, against a horse that had sat a perfect trip (relative to the runner up). Now, why would any horse not look good under those circumstances? (And I don't think his FOY was any better -- less distance, more distance challenged types, on a track that was producing high figures all meet.) When will QR ever get another trip like that? Certainly not in the Derby. Do I want this horse at (relatively) low odds?
It's not about the Derby collapsing or how fast the pace is but rather QR actually having to run a bit more with Dunkirk or some other closer running the same. This involves just just a single horse moving 1st on the turn and forcing QR to go with him. Under those circumstances, not far fetched given the size of the field and that there will be a few horses in the race who can actually get a distance, this horse will have to run a bit. Maybe he has it in him. But the significant run Dunkirk made against him doesn't make it appear very likely to me.
Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.
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I completely understand what you're saying. However, I don't put as much stock in Dunkirk's wide move because he is more likely to have to make that type of move each time he runs, he had made that move in each of his first two starts, and GP's wide turns lend themselves well to wide moves, much more so than a place like CD. That being said, it's pretty safe to say that QR's trip in the Fla Derby was good.
My opinion of his FOY effort has less to do with his figure and more to do with the finishing position of the horses who also participated in the pace. He was the only one of them running at the end and the fact that he turned back Theregoesjojo, who I think is a one-run, one-turn horse, shows how well he ran on that afternoon.
I bolded your last statement because I think IWR, like QR and FF is a great case in point when it comes to trips. His Gotham win in my opinion was one of the easiest trips of the prep season. Stalking that pace while hounding a bona fide sprinter and drawing off late amounted to a good effort but everything went his way.
In the Wood he had everything superficial happen to him that a novice trip handicapper loves to see. The poor break, traffic, late split of horses makes everyone, Tom Durkin included, focus on how he was "in trouble throughout." However, as you astutely pointed out this morning, the race flow really played into his hands. The 2nd quarter of the Wood was significantly faster than the first and the pacesetters were basically a bunch of bums just waiting to spit it in the lane. The race fell apart at the eighth pole and he basically last moved them as you like to say.
I think there's a big difference between the way IWR ran and if he had somehow been foolishly rushed up going the backstretch (a la Gomez on Massone). He was given a perfectly patient ride, one which Talamo probably doesn't get enough credit for. Even an average jockey can look great when he has enough confidence in his animal to be patient.
NT