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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I think there's a big difference between a horse who has chased dawdling paces, taken over and kicked clear against poor to moderate late runners and a horse who has stalked good fractions, taken over and at least in his biggest race to date held off a pretty good horse, who might have been disadvantaged by pace.
NT
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I'll address this point because some of the others are contained within it. He held off Dunkirk because he got an absolutely perfect setup. It wasn't even about the track being speed favoring, which most seem to be focusing on (including Pletcher) or pace (as the rest of the field went backwards). It was about Dunkirk having to run on the turn, significantly, wide and on his own, with no help from the field, against a horse that had sat a perfect trip (relative to the runner up). Now, why would any horse not look good under those circumstances? (And I don't think his FOY was any better -- less distance, more distance challenged types, on a track that was producing high figures all meet.) When will QR ever get another trip like that? Certainly not in the Derby. Do I want this horse at (relatively) low odds?
It's not about the Derby collapsing or how fast the pace is but rather QR actually having to run a bit more with Dunkirk or some other closer running the same. This involves just just a single horse moving 1st on the turn and forcing QR to go with him. Under those circumstances, not far fetched given the size of the field and that there will be a few horses in the race who can actually get a distance, this horse will have to run a bit. Maybe he has it in him. But the significant run Dunkirk made against him doesn't make it appear very likely to me.
Compare his last two races to those of I Want Revenge, for example.