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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I think that while Quality Road's Florida Derby can be questioned a bit because of his trip, his Ftn of Youth is really not getting enough respect. He was right on a very hot pace that afternoon and still finished up strong. That was a very strong effort and it seems like it's been somewhat forgotten.
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This horse can't really control the pace in the Derby. He's just not good enough. At best, and most likely, he tries to sit a stalking trip, and prays that nothing else is coming. Problem is, there are too many horses in the race for QR to be the only horse sitting pretty on the turn. There will be multiple moves in the Derby, and (especially if the pace is fast) the race will most certainly collapse. Probably not a complete collapse but certainly not one where the horse inheriting the lead wins the race. Add to this that Velazquez is about as reliable as Prado these days and you have a very poor bet. With all the focus on POTN as the toss horse in the Derby, QR and FF make much better sense as tosses (to WIN) and they will be shorter odds.