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Originally Posted by Dunbar
That is a huge mistake, IMO. Identifying the horse most likely to win the race is not enough.
I never make a bet unless I think the odds justify the bet. That does not mean I would never bet chalk. I would (and have!) bet a 3-5 shot if I thought it had a 75% chance to win the race. I'll also bet a 60-1 shot if I think the odds should be 40-1.
Unless you are the beneificiary of a truckload of inside info, you need to have some idea what fair odds are for a horse before you bet it.
--Dunbar
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Dunbar, that's pretty much how I bet but, to me, there's one more important factor.
If I think a horse is 4-1 fair odds to win, I'm willing to bet him at 5-1 for $1x. But if the 4-1 fair odds horse goes off at 7-1, I will bet more, say $1.25x. And if he goes off at 10-1, then I max out at $1.50x.
To me, that's the key to success. Having MORE action going when actual/fair is higher.