"I agree that you might as well flip a coin when betting a 2 furlong race."
Just to explore this, I did a quick survey of the 2YO races run at Santa Anita in January 1956, a randomly selected January during the 1950s. Granted, these are 3 furlong races rather than 2- that's what Santa Anita was carding.
Date - Time for 3fs - Odds for winner (*=favorite) - field size
Jan 4 - 33.1 - 3.45* - 14
Jan 5 - 33.1 -.90* - 14
Jan 6 - 33.2 - 19.35 (favorite third) - 14
Jan 10 - 33.3 - 6.15 (favorite second) - 14
Jan 11 - 33.4 - .85* - 14
Jan 12 - 33.2 - 2.05* - 14
Jan 13 - 33.2 - 2.05 (favored entry 4th and 7th) - 14
Jan 17 - 33.3 - 6.30 (favorite 6th) - 12
Jan 18 - 33.3 - 2.70 (favorite fourth) - 12
Jan 19 - 33.3 - 6.20 (favorite third) - 14
Jan 20 - 33.3 - .60* - 14
Jan 24 - 33.4 - 5.95 (favorite second) - 13
Jan 25 - 34.3 - 2.40* - 14
Jan 26 - 34 - 5.85 (favorite third) - 11
Jan 27 - 33.3 - 6.85 (favorite 8th) - 14
(Note 33.1=33 1/5, etc.)
15 races.
11 14-horse fields; only one less than 12 starters was on a muddy track with many scratches.
Six winning favorites (40%). 11 in-the-money favorites (73%). Only one race was won by a horse at double-digit odds.
This small sample at least features races that were actually extremely formful, despite the fact that they consistently drew large fields.
Last edited by Phalaris1913 : 04-11-2009 at 03:19 PM.
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