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Old 04-09-2009, 05:48 AM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
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Default Oddity with recent Oaks winners

It's kind of odd how poorly they've run in their career debut races.

* '05 Oaks winner Summerly: 8th beaten 28 lengths with a 25 Beyer in her debut. 2nd time out improved her figure 49 points in victory.

* '06 Oaks winner Lemons Forever: 9th beaten 17 lengths with a 36 Beyer in her debut. 2nd time out improved her figure 30 points in victory

* '07 Oaks winner Rags to Riches: 4th beaten 6+ lengths with a 62 Beyer. 2nd time out improved her figure 26 points in victory.

* '08 Oaks winner Proud Spell: 76 Beyer in her debut. Improved 18 points in career start #2.

While not an Oaks winner ...Eight Belles was 3rd in a MSW race at Delaware Park with a 53 Beyer in her debut .. she improved 14 points 2nd time out.

This years Oaks favorite Rachel Alexandra was 6th by 8 with a 51 Beyer in her debut ... she improved 34 points in victory next out.

I mentioned before how the last 6 years - a grand total of six horses in the Kentucky Derby had run a triple digit Beyer in career start #2 - and four of the six won while another finished 2nd.

Seems like lately with the Oaks it's not so much about being able to post a crazy fast number in career start #2 as it is being able to show extreme improvement off of a mediocre debut in career start #2.

The average debut Beyer of the the last four Oaks winners is just 49.75 - that doesn't include Eight Belles 53 or Rachel Alexandra's 51.

Just something real weird I noticed. Not sure if it means all that much.
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