[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I know that we'll probably have to agree to disagree on this one, but aren't we writing off Old Fashioned as a Derby contender a bit prematurely. Looking at the list of probables for the Arkansas Derby (and the likely change in pace dynamics with Silver City not in the race), I'd be surprised if Old Fashioned didn't win that race by open lengths.

With The Pamplemousse off the Derby Trail now, after looking at the list of probable Derby contestants, I'm hard-pressed to find a horse that will be in front of Old Fashioned at Churchill Downs. Given his trainer's recent record at the Derby, I would not be shocked to see a loose-on-the lead Old Fashioned turn in a Hard Spun-type effort in the Derby. It's a lot different setting the pace, even if it's fast, than it is chasing it, as he was forced to do in the Rebel and Southwest.

All that said, should Old Fashioned flop in the Derby, I agree that, as a son of Unbridled's Song with a potential stud career in front of him, the Met Mile would be an interesting assignment for him.

I feel the same way as you do. While I don't really like the chances of Old Fashioned in the Kentucky Derby, I do think that the way the Arkansas Derby will play out could lead to a dominating (yet deceiving) victory. Off of that, it's almost impossible not to go on to Kentucky and as you noted, the scratch of The Pamplemousse certainly doesn't hurt Old Fashioned's chances. When you think of Hard Spun and Lion Heart in recent years as horses that didn't really want 10f but got out there and had it their own way, you want to give Old Fashioned a little bit longer of a look.