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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Yeah... but what about Stately Charchter now? his 4th place finish will look heroic on paper.
A new double digit lifetime 11 point Beyer top in career start #9 ... and he did it while the one horse in the race most against that supposed monster speed biased track and against that supposed slow pace.
I'm not buying it.
That race is a total mess.
I can see things that make me think the pace was fast. I can see things that make me think the pace was average. I can see things that make me think the pace was slow.
I can see things that make me think the final time figure should be a 100 - I can see things that make me think it should be a 112 - but I went with a 106 when I did mine.
I can see things that make me think the track was biased. I can see other things that make me think it wasn't.
On days like that there's nothing to do but take the opposite position of the overall consenus. Tell me the pace was fast - I insist it was slow. Tell me it was slow - I insist it was fast. Tell me the final fig should be a 112 I insist it should be 100. Tell me it should be a 100 I insist its a 112. Tell me the track was biased - I insist it wasn't. Tell me it wasn't bias I insist it was.
The important thing on a screwed up day like this is that you are able to gauge the publics perception of the race. Once you do that ... always take a firm stance with the opposite position.
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I get what you're saying about it being confusing. My opinion, not necessarily right or wrong- the pace was a 5 out of 10 for this level (taking into account the wind, otherwise it'd be a 7-7.5), the track was not biased, and a suckup 4th place finisher means nothing relative to what the winner and 2nd place horse did given the margins, even if the figure was higher than expected.
What I don't like is they changed the figure later on. Stick with your original number or go with the higher number from the start. There isn't exactly anecdotal evidence to prove or disprove either one since Saturday. This is the main reason I don't use the Beyers printed in the Form.
I've run into this type of thing at Saratoga before too. Logical frontrunners/pressers win every dirt race and everyone thinks there's a bias, when later on it is proven that the "closers" on that day were just bums with no early speed and no closing kick for the level they were placed on that day.