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Originally Posted by philcski
I don't trust the internal fractions at all at FG. I think some of the timers are in the wrong place. For example, using the posted fractions, Friesan Fire went:
Lecomte :24 1/5, :24 2/5, :25 4/5, :24 1/5
Risen Star :23 2/5, :24 2/5, :26, :31 (so reasonably, :24 3/5-:6 2/5)
Lousiana Derby :24 1/5, :24 2/5, :24 3/5, :30 1/5 (so reasonably, :24-:6 1/5)
Only the Louisiana Derby would make any sense at all but even that shows too much acceleration given the track condition. Dirt horses just don't make these many changes of pace. If he really did run these, he's a serious Derby contender.
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All 4 of FF's pace figures from his FG races are very cut and dry imo.
* in the Lousiana Derby - Papa Clem set a 1:13.35 pace - by comparison, Rachel Alexandra went a full second faster and Secret Getaway went 2 full seconds faster in a couple of routes earlier in the card.
* In the Risen Star - It Happened Again set a 1:13.64 pace - by comparison, War Tigress went a full second faster in a 3yo filly race at the same distance 30 minutes earlier.
* In the Lecomte - Au Moon set a 1:13.53 pace - by comparison, Selva went 1:12.82 in a small field 3yo filly stake at the same distance 30 minutes prior.
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Originally Posted by philcski
Otherwise, great work. How did you determine the pace variants for each of the days? Nonmechanical pace calcs seem to have a lot of "guesswork" involved unless you know the individual circuit's timing quirks extremely well (i.e., like at GP the mile pace # is much different than the 7f or 6f number because of the lack of runup.)
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I have track specific pars and charts and everything else. It's basically not much different than making final time figures. But the wind can sometimes make things a real bitch.