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Originally Posted by NTamm1215
I'm operating under the assumption that he will not. That's based on Bill Mott's assessment that he was not a dirt horse by running him on turf or synthetics in three races last year. He has specialized in turf-like races where the last move wins.
I also thought Pioneer's trip in the Bob Lewis was better and you could really see I Want Revenge struggling with the track in the stretch.
Of course, it remains to be seen if A) I Want Revenge is just a one-hit wonder who benefited from a perfect trip in the Gotham or B) POTN will also move up on the dirt and prove that the California crop was simply unable to post respectable figures because of the synthetics.
I will gamble that POTN is a turf horse because it seems a safe bet that he's going to be overbet in the Derby relative to his overall ability.
NT
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I don't disagree with any of this. Accept for the part about where Mott started him out. That doesn't mean much at all. What surface was Barbaro running on early? Big Brown? Lure? Kitten's Joy? Cigar? Zito continously placed Commentator in sprints. Sometimes, they get it wrong. And it's not even that they necessarily get wrong. Some horses, like the first three I mentioned, are good on both.
Only thing I'd say is that at this point, IWR does deserve the edge in a dirt race because he's proven he can handle it but I don't think he's proven he's better.
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The real horses of the year (1986-2020)
Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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