nice post.
I learned something about Pioneerof the Nile from your post.
before I even look at surface:
DISTANCE?:
Pamplemousse is so abjectly distance challenged that he shouldn't even be entered into the KD. His stamina index shows him to be about a miler at most, and his sire is Kafwain. Eliminated.
Pioneerof the Nile is more geared towards being a miler, but his pedigree doesn't eliminate him.
TALENT?:
PtN has pretty good talent. He usually shows a good response and has a quick turn of foot. Fairly game. His last prep was really dull, so all the focus will be on the final prep for flashing more recent talent.
SURFACE?:
PtN should be fine on dirt. The difference that comes in with the switch to dirt is that over that light-synthetic turf at Santa Anita, everybody that has about the talent to be training in around 48 or 49 for 4f on dirt, is working in 6 or 7 on that synth in 1:13 or 1:26... That's if they don't push the horse! All the 6Furlong sprinters are stretching to a mile in the afternoons as if it was expected. I could see an increase in distance affecting PtN a tiny bit more over a dirt surface.
RUNNING STYLE?:
I think his off the pace style hurts him in the Derby, because with his pedigree stamina and talent being on the fence, it's going to be harder to close. He will flatten out and run 10th
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