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Originally Posted by philcski
Sunday Afternoon update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA
So that's 41 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 4 spots open.
Changes Today:* Mississippi State wins the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Kicks SDSU out of the bracket. What a joke of an ending, both officiating wise and how horrible both teams played. The SEC sucks and it's a shame they took a bid away from a team that deserved it over them.
ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN
Big East:
Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT
Big XII:
Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.
SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT
Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.
Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. With Mississippi State winning the SEC, OUT
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.
Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN
Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.
Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State, Kansas, Duke*
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State
5: Purdue*, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal, Ohio State
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, BYU
10: USC*, Michigan, Utah St*, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Wisconsin, VCU*
12: Minnesota, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Mississippi State*
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*
This is my opinion of what I think the committee will do, not what I would do. If I had my choices two of Minnesota, Maryland, and/or Wisconsin would be OUT in favor of St. Mary's and SDSU. Road/neutral record MUST be weighted more than what the committee allows for, because it's a huge predictor of tournament performance. A team like Arizona has beaten some good teams but when you only win 2 games (both against terrible opponents in Oregon and Oregon State) in true away games you shouldn't have a case. Wisconsin is just 18-12 and 4-10 against the top 50. They stay in because they are a solid 5-1 against the next 50 and a "reasonable" 6-9 R/N against a very difficult schedule.
Additionally, a lot has been made about the #1 seeds. Who cares, there are 5 teams in the running and clearly UConn/Memphis are 4/5 in that group, does it really matter in the end as long as they end up in the same region (which invariably, they will?) UConn stays on the top line for me because they are 8-3 against the top 50 and Memphis is 4-2, but I'd have no problem with them swapped. Both have only lost 1 game to anyone else not in the tournament, and both were to the same team- Georgetown.
For recordkeeping, the top 50 RPI teams left out: SDSU, UAB, St. Mary's, Illinois State, Niagara (all mid-majors, of course.)
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