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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
If the Patena crew's objective is to beat Friesan Fire, then they didn't really need to change trainers. The added distance and some more early action in the race should take care of that.
Any notion that FF is the horse to beat in the upcoming race is misguided.
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I'll go ahead and say that my pick here is
Friesan Fire.
Patena certainly wouldn't be a surprise, he was moving beautifully in the Lecomte, and ANY HORSE 1st Dutrow must be respected much less a good horse like Patena. I think Patena is better at a mile than than at a 1 1/16th or farther. Not sure it will hurt him in the La. Derby. They only have to run about 6 or 7 seconds longer than in the Lecomte - it's not a huge difference today, and you figure Dutrow is going to move him up anyway.
Right now Friesan Fire is my pick for the Derby. He will remain so after the Louisianna Derby unless he throws in a poor performance. He doesn't have to win here if someone else runs a really big race, but I expect a solid effort similar to the Risen Star.
Flying Pegasus is also under the microscope.
Papa Clem is a horse that I haven't really examined, but if he runs great, he earned himself a closer look. I think this will be the last derby related race for
Giant Oak, unless he goes to the Blue Grass regardless of his finish position here.