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Originally Posted by philcski
I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.
Davidson is dead.
Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.
SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.
Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.
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Creighton also lost to Drake at home and Arkansas-Little Rock and Wichita State on the road, then barely beat Wichita State and lost by 24 to Illinois State. That's not an at-large resume. I think they're done.
Siena has no chance in my opinion, and I strongly disagree with Scott that South Carolina is anything close to a lock. 10-6 in the conference means very little when you're 0-3 against the two Tournament teams and are 1-5 against the RPI 1-50. What's their good win? At Kentucky by one? At Baylor by three? Narrow wins against two NIT teams? They also lost to College of Charleston at home. I think they need at least two wins to be safe.