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Originally Posted by philcski
I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.
Davidson is dead.
Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.
SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.
Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.
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Creighton couldn't afford to lose by 24. Both the teams that wound up in the finals of their league were blown out by MAAC teams in the bracket buster games which doesn't help their case as the #9 conference. They remind me a lot of Illinois St last year, were probably in until they got blown out in their championship. Or the 2006 Missouri St team that washed out in the first round of their conference tourney and missed the tournament with an RPI of 21:
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2008&team=Illinois%20St.
http://kenpom.com/sked.php?&y=2006&team=Missouri%20St.
I agree with you on Florida and were I picking the teams I'd toss out South Carolina as well. But I have a feeling the committee will put those teams in if they can just win one game in their conference tourney.
Once Siena went 0-3 in the Old Spice they couldn't afford more than one loss in conference. Once they lost that second conference game it pretty much killed them. The big knock on them is the lack of a top 50 win but that would change if they lost tonight to Niagara as they would move up to 46 or 47. They lost by 15 at Niagara and won by 17 against them on their home court. They get the championship game on their home court so really no excuses if they lose (like how UNLV has no excuse if they can't make their tourney finals on their home court). My main worry is that the Big East crew that came in for the semis last night allowed Egemonye to get away with assault with a deadly weapon (his elbows). Siena needs him to get in early foul trouble like he does every other game. If the refs let his elbows and pushing go all night it could be a tough game.