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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Dayton and South Carolina may have to sweat it out if they choke in their tournaments but for now I'm calling them locks. That makes 38 locks, 7 bids up for grabs. Currently I'd rank the remaining teams in this order:
Florida
St Marys
Minnesota
Michigan
Arizona
New Mexico
Penn St
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San Diego St
UAB
Providence
Temple
Creighton
UNLV
USC
Davidson
Auburn
Rhode Island
Beyond that I can't see anyone else getting in. Davidson and Creighton are on the wrong side of the bubble and can't improve themselves so are done. Anyone else off the bubble still has a shot to play themselves in. If Saint Mary's loses tonight that may push them onto the wrong side of the bubble. San Diego St - UNLV is a huge first round game in the MWC. Loser is dead, winner may need to knock off BYU in the semis to lock up a bid. New Mexico may need to knock off Utah to get a bid. If it winds up New Mexico against SDSt or UNLV in the finals they could get 4 bids, if it winds up Utah-BYU they might only get two.
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I think you've got Creighton too low. They're 9-5 against the top 100, co-champions of the #9 ranked league, and some solid OOC wins including over Mtn West co-champs (and bubble dweller) New Mexico.
Davidson is dead.
Florida is garbage. If they got in over say a Creighton it would truly be an injustice.
SDSU-UNLV is essentially a play-in game. Don't think the winner needs another, the loser is out.
Siena will be a very interesting case if they lose.