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Originally Posted by ateamstupid
We head into the meat of Championship Week with the bubble thinned down a bit thanks to this past week's attrition. It's no longer necessary (it never really was, it just helped aesthetically) to separate the bubble teams by conference. Some think that Boston College and Ohio State need a win in their respective conference tourneys to lock up bids, but with the failings of bubble teams left and right recently, I think those two are safely in.
LOCKS: DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA, WAKE FOREST, CLEMSON, FLORIDA STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA STATE, UCLA, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, PITTSBURGH, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MARQUETTE, SYRACUSE, WEST VIRGINIA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, TEXAS A&M, ILLINOIS, MICHIGAN STATE, PURDUE, OHIO STATE, LSU, TENNESSEE, UTAH, BYU, MEMPHIS, XAVIER, GONZAGA, BUTLER
For argument's sake, we'll assume that there will be no automatic qualifiers from outside of that bloc. Gonzaga and Butler, the only two that are currently playing in a conference tournament, are each in the championship game of their respective tournaments. Gonzaga plays St. Mary's tonight in the WCC title, while Butler hosts Cleveland State tomorrow in the Horizon.
The count of at-large bids locked up by these teams (with nary a surprise conference tourney champion) is 23.
That leaves 11 bids open for the following teams, in no particular order:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Arizona, Providence, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Auburn, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Tulsa, Dayton, Creighton, Utah State, St. Mary's, Davidson
Roughly half of those teams will get a bid to the Dance if there are no surprise conference tourney winners.
Now here's an idea of what teams need to do in their conference tournaments to secure bids. Obviously if St. Mary's wins tonight, the Gaels are in, trimming the bubble margin to 10 bids.
Teams that will likely be in with one conference tournament win: Arizona, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Michigan
Teams that may be OK with one win, but need two to be locks: Providence, Wisconsin, Florida, South Carolina, Dayton, UNLV, New Mexico, Utah State
Teams that need two or more wins: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami (FL), Kansas State, Penn State, Auburn, San Diego State, Tulsa
Creighton and Davidson have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments, leaving their fates in the air. Both are shaky bubble candidates, we'll go over their cases later in the week, but needless to say, they want the rest of the bubble teams bounced early in their conference tournaments and the locks to go on and win.
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