[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

The way I see it right now...
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WCC: Gonzaga
MVC: Creighton

So that's 32 teams in 12 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 19 conferences likely to only get one bid, that leaves 14 spots open.

ACC: BC- computer profile sux and the losses aren't pretty but any team with wins over UNC, Duke, and FSU and finishes .500 or better in the ACC is probably good to go. IN
Maryland- similar to BC, computer profile sux and some bad losses but great wins over UNC and Michigan State plus fellow bubbler Michigan, need to get to .500 in the ACC by winning @ Virginia or a couple games in the ACC Tournament. IN
VT- going to be tough to get in with 13 losses, even with their tough schedule and some good wins. I think they're OUT.

Big East:
Providence- bad computer profile and only 5-11 against top 100, but 10-8 in the Big East keeps them in play. I think they're OUT right now but have a chance in the Big East Tournament to get back in.

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Brutal schedule paying off, they have a bunch of wins against fellow bubble teams and likely will finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. Barring two horrific performances, they are IN.
Minnesota- 5-6 against the RPI top 50 and 8-8 against the top 100, fairly strong, and a key win over Louisville in the nonconference- as long as they win their opening round game in the Big Ten Tournament they're IN.
Ohio State- not playing well right now but they have done a lot of good overall, even if they lose to Northwestern in the finale, as long as they don't flame out in the Big Ten Tournament they are IN.
Michigan- Great nonconf but not much good in conference... probably need to beat Minnesota in the finale and win a game in the Big Ten Tournament.
Penn State- Huge bucket late last night to beat Illinois, but pathetic nonconference schedule holding back their RPI/SOS. 11-7 in the Big Ten would be tough to ignore.
Northwestern- Sneaking in very possible, they are playing great right now and have some beef on their resume including a win over FSU. The RPI will improve if they keep winning.
I think two of the bottom four get in and will sort itself out, so 7 teams from the Big Ten in total.

Big XII:
Oklahoma State- Very close to a lock with their RPI/SOS and solid wins, even if they lose to Oklahoma and flame in the first round of the Big XII Tournament they're probably still IN.
Texas A&M- 22 wins, no bad losses, a win over Mizzou would lock it up but I think a loss and a win or two in the Big XII tournament and they're still IN.

Pac-10:
Arizona- As Uncly said, her alma mater is really struggling right now, and has some losses to some fellow bubble teams, but can get back on the right side with a win against Stanford Saturday and a couple wins in the Pac-10 tournament. OUT, for now.

SEC:
This league sucks this year. They really only deserve two teams, but I think if South Carolina beats Georgia on Saturday they will be IN. Nobody else deserves a look, including Florida.

Mountain West:
UNLV- Couple bad losses but they are not going to leave out a team with a 5-3 record over the top 50 and 9-6 against the top 100 in a strong, strong Mountain West league this year. Very close to a lock. IN
New Mexico- Bad nonconference in both schedule and performance but are coming on strong, and if they win @ Wyoming they'll at least tie for the Mountain West crown, which would put them IN.
San Diego State- OOC they didn't beat anybody in the top 100, and is probably the odd team out in the Mountain West unless they do something special in the MW Tournament. OUT

So, that leaves three spots available from outside the top 7 leagues if everyone in the "lock" category holds serve. As it stands right now, I would give them to Rhode Island, Saint Mary's, and Siena if they need it, and if they don't, work backwards through the above BCS leagues, starting with Arizona and an 8th team from the Big Ten.

Monday update.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler
WCC: Gonzaga

So that's 36 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 9 spots open.
*Texas (which should have been there anyways), BC, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, & Texas A&M move in to LOCK status.
*Creighton drops back into the at-large pool after losing in the MVC Semis.

ACC:
Maryland- As usual, they found a way to lose a game that they had to have, this time to UVA on Saturday. Now 7-9 in the ACC which means they have to win a few in the ACC Tournament to feel safe. OUT
Virginia Tech- 17-13 overall, 7-9 in the ACC, 2-8 against the RPI top 50, and 6-11 against the RPI top 100. That's a tough sell. Loser of VT-Miami is definitely OUT, but they are on the wrong side anyways right now.
Miami- Back in the picture because of the soft bubble, but as stated above the VT-Miami game is essentially a play-in game for the NCAA's... and the winner still might have to win another game in the ACC Tournament. OUT

Big East:
Providence- MUST win their quarterfinal round game, and might need to beat #1 seed Louisville in the semis. OUT at the moment.

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance in the first round of the Big Ten tournament they should be fine, even with a loss. IN
Minnesota- Tough loss on Saturday after being up 12, would have moved them off this line, but now needs to win a game in the Big Ten Tournament. IN, for the moment.
Michigan- Halfway home to a bid based on the scenario I laid out last time. As long as they beat Iowa in the first round they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Ugh. I was rooting for them to get back into the Tourney but you CANNOT lose to a team like Iowa at this point of the season. Beat Illinois 2X and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... OUT
Northwestern- They almost got the win they needed in Columbus but not quite there. Needs to make a run to the Big Ten championship game. OUT

Big XII:
* Oklahoma State moves into LOCK status because everyone around them keeps collapsing, and they just feel like a tournament team, unlike a lot of these other bums. I don't know for certain if they can afford a loss to Iowa State in the first round but given the way things are right now around them they probably can and still get in. Texas A&M earned it the hard way with a clinching win against Mizzou.

Pac-10:
Arizona- Does a win at home against #105 Stanford get you in? No, but it certainly cures the blues temporarily. Got a tough matchup with Az State in the first round and might need to win that one. OUT, for now.

SEC:
South Carolina- No bad losses but no real good wins either. The 10-6 record in the SEC is extremely hollow, but it's still a precedent- no SEC team has ever missed the tournament with a 10-6 league record that I can ever remember. Should be IN barring a horrific loss to either Georgia or Mississippi State in the SEC quarters.
Florida- They move back into the picture because everyone else sucks. OUT for now but that Washington win is looking better and better. Must beat Arkansas and Auburn, and 24-10 would be tough to ignore.

Mountain West:
* Two of the three teams that were in the picture last Friday will make it and they will work it out in Vegas this week.
UNLV- had a chance to lock it up and in the process, knock out SDSU but didn't get it done. They get a second crack in the quarterfinals of the Mtn West tournament at home- the winner is IN, the loser is OUT.
New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just IN at this point (as in, the last team in) based on tying for the league title, but shouldn't lose to Wyoming in the quarters or there will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this week.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN

Others:
There are two bids left under the assumption that the Mountain West has a knockout game, none of the ACC under .500 teams are worthy, and UF doesn't make a run in the SEC Tournament. Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass. Right now, I'd give the first slot to St. Mary's if they need it, followed by Siena if they need it, followed by Utah State if they need it, followed by Rhode Island or Temple.