I'm seeing a pattern...
NZ Derby winners:
2001: Leica Guv
2003: Cut The Cake
2005: No race (they moved it from December to March)
2007: Redoute's Dancer
2009: Coniston Bluebird
I don't rate any of these horses as worthy Derby winners. None of them did much after winning this race (too early to say that for CB, but I don't have high hopes).
2000: Hail
2002: St Reims
2004: Xcellent
2006: Wahid
2008: C'est La Guerre
All really good horses.
2010 should be good.