The way I see it now there are 33 teams that are locks.
Then you have 8 teams that have a strong chance to lock things up:
Wisconsin - in with a home win over Indiana
Boston College - in with a home win over GT
Minnesota - in with a home win over Michigan
Florida - in with a home win over Kentucky
Dayton - in with a win at Xavier or home against Duquesne
Texas A&M - lock with a home win against Missouri, still likely even with a loss
Ohio St - in with a home win against Northwestern
Arizona - in with a home win against Cal or Stanford
IF those teams all take care of business you have four spots left and what those teams need to do to stay in consideration:
Maryland - win at Virginia and win 7-10 game in ACC Tourney
Providence - either win at Villanova (would make them a lock) or get one Big East tourney win
Rhode Island - win finale against UMass and then get to A10 tourney finals beating either Xavier or Dayton on the way
UNLV - win at San Diego St and at least make conference tourney semis
St Marys - make finals of WCC tourney and lose a very competitive game to Gonzaga
UAB - make finals of CUSA tourney and lose a very competitive game to Memphis or beat Memphis in semis and lose in finals
USC - win final two at home vs Oregon schools
Penn St - split remaining two games and win at least one B10 tourney game, could be a lock if they win both remaining games
Hard to imagine that enough of those teams don't get the job done to put teams like Cincy and Kansas State into play. There are a few teams (VT, Michigan, Northwestern, Kentucky, Auburn) that could enter the discussion if they pull the upset in their final games.
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