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Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
Is AZ in yet or do they need a run in the Pac10 tourney? I know they are a flawed team but it would be painful to see the Scum Devils in and we have to go to the NIT
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A week ago, I would've said they're in. That loss to Arizona State where they came back from 17 down to take the lead, then lose, has kind of put them in a bad way.
Arizona has six wins against the RPI Top 50 (three against the Top 25) and they can get a seventh if they beat Cal at home on Thursday. Right now there's no other bubble team that has more than six. Arizona also has no terrible losses that'll come back to haunt them, i.e. Maryland losing to Morgan State.
If one thing is going to keep Arizona out of the Tournament, it's their piss poor road/neutral record. After these last three losses, they're now 4-9 in road/neutral games with their four wins coming against Oregon State (road), Santa Clara (neutral), Oregon (road) and Mississippi Valley State (neutral). That's why I think they need to win at least one game on a neutral floor in the Pac-10 Tourney, since their last two regular season games are at home.
The disappearance of the three Big East teams and Maryland's loss means they might only have to get to 20 wins to get in, but if no more bubble teams falter, they may need to get to 21. Thursday's game against Cal should be interesting, mainly to see if Arizona is visibly tight or shaken. If they win that, they're back in business, but a fourth straight loss would be really bad news this late.