I hope you guys subscribe to the DubaiRaceNight newsletter - free of course...but here is what I said about 23-1 winner Dijeerr...
Make no mistake about the fact that #1 HONOUR DEVIL is a deserving strong favorite. I don't think #6 TIZ NOW TIZ THEN can get close to Honour Devil under most circumstances but am holding out hope that #2 DIJEERR harnesses some magical turn of form to spring the upset or put a decent run in.
His dam, Sharp Minister (by Deputy Minister), was unplaced in two starts, but a year after foaling Dijeerr, she dropped a full brother named Plavius. In four lifetime starts on Dubai dirt, Plavius has two wins and a second before he finished last on February 6th at Nad Al Sheba. You'll notice that Plavius defeated #3 ESTIDHAAF by more than six lengths four starts back, and I think he has board-hitting possibilties today. A half-brother to Dijeerr, Sharp Writer, was second in the Golden Gate Derby (G3) in 2005 before winning some listed stakes races in 2006. Overall, his ability to make some running on the dirt is not out of the question given the breeding.
Apprentice jockey Antioco Murgia has the return call on Dijeerr and has compiled just nine rides in the Emirates since January 22nd. He managed his first local win last week at Jebel Ali for trainer Mubarak bin Shafya, winning by 7.75 lengths in a pace-tracking victory. Interestingly, he rode a son of Danzig that day and had a decent second at a price last week at the Carnival.
Those last two races for Dijeerr were indeed AWFUL, but I am certainly wondering if a change of scene could give him a chance to find himself near the front of the field. I expect the 8-1 morning line to drift up quite a bit as the gate break looms.
Now, granted, I still think Honour Devil was best in that race but Dijeerr offered quite a bit of value and did indeed drift to 23-1. He was only 11-1 on the UK pool.
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