I am going out there, friend of mine is in town and has an interest in the races.
The 5th is actually a pretty wide open event, I am kind of interested in Star of Whitney who made the first move against Shes Sensational last time and then was beat late. Maybe with a better time move and given she may well be twice the price it seems like the play. Storybrook is ok but the horse will be overbet. La Tee is ok, was pretty game against nice horses last time but sure had everything her own way and at 2/1 I just cant bet. Kayd Kaydoun is the type of horse I usually bet, burried in her last two races against decent alw horses I can use her, but shouldnt she be a ml of 8/1 instead of 7/2, I mean I dont get why she is so low on the m/l.
In the 7th I think the key is how much action Zappa takes. If he is hammered then you must play against the horse. He is the clear pace but is more of a dirt/syn runner. I thought it was interesting that the three best horses have a similar running style and certainly increases the chances that the race collapses very late and if that happens I can use Canard at anywhere close to the m/l.
The gold cup is certainly wide open. I dont fault Machismo at all with two solid efforts against much better but in both those cases he was the clear speed dawn inside and today he is outside with some pace inside of him, throw in he will almost certainly be overbet he is a play against. I thought the race is a spread in the multi race bets but I am going to see the odds of Peace Chant whose best races were on dirt on goes to Oneill on a private purchase. He owns the horse and this is his dime to come over here. my guess is he thinks he is a dirt horse as well.
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