[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but...

two things may work against her. one, you never want a horse going to the derby that is still learning new things-dirt would be a huge change for her, she's never touched it on the track.
the second thing-there are colts out there who already relish the dirt surface, and will be in their element.

then there's one thing many forget. fillies typically mature faster than colts; that's why so many two year old fillies fool people into thinking they can win the derby, because they most likely could beat their male counterparts at that age.
but a lot changes between january and may, she'll find a far more level playing field by then.
i think stardom bound is a good horse, but i don't find her to be a particularly special one.

if the concession is that she couldn't beat males in cali, on her surface, i don't see how she can win vs a bigger field on a foreign surface.

All of what you say is very valid. Ideally, you'd love to have every question answered beforehand and have the distance be the only one left. But we won't get that with her or many of the other California based horses. So of course the dirt will be a question but I just don't see any reason to believe that she won't handle it so instead of assuming she won't, I'm basing my assumption on the fact that she will. If she will, I see no other disadvantages for her. The fact that there are colts that will relish is it not as important to me. They may like it more but not have the talent to beat her. Like Golden Doc A might relish the synthetic more than Indian Blessing does but she didn't have a big her talent disadvantage was bigger than her track advantage. So then the question becomes whether or not you think that, all else being equal, she has the talent. I think she does. Your point about the fillies maturing faster is not necessarily in play here. It could be but there's no evidence to say that it's the truth here. As it is, she has every right to continue to develop as the colts do. Until I see where I think they've passed her by, I have to believe that she still has the advantage that she had. The last thing is that I don't think the concession is that she can't be males here. At this point, I'd make her the clear favorite for the SA Derby.