This race looks to go through Stormy Lake. However, there might be some ways to make money with her.
BLOOD DIAMONDS- The class drop is respectable but it seems like Becky Maker's other runner is the one to watch in here. Polytrack form is not always on par with turf and this gal needed a race to get going early in '08. Next time might be the right time.
JUDGE'S PRIDE- Empire bred pushed the pace going long last time in her first start since an early December run on the inner. She wired a field of NY bred MSW runners at the Spa in August '07 at a huge price, so speed going short has been her game in the past. The bug boy has the call today and he will undoubtedly push her hard from the gate, however, she looks to be much slower early than a number of runners in here.
CLASSIC LAKE- Plodder is in deep even with the pace expected to be hot. Orseno shows positive numbers with horses cutting back in distance, but thsi gal may end up in a different zip code after three furlongs. Tough to endorse going short.
DANCES FOR TIPS- Another who was unsuccessfully stretched out in her last two, but do note that her maiden win came sprinting on the weeds when she ran Laurel MSW ladies off their feet. Her speed has been dulled by the last two, so it's tough to imagine she can make an impact today.
KIT CAT CATON- Another from the stretched out sprinter brigade who's cutting back and this turnback worked once before as she broke her maiden when shortening up from a 1 1/16 effort over the Calder lawn. She ran into trouble in her first two efforts against winners and was then over her head last time out. Improvement should not come as a surprise.
TICKLE ME TICK- She still hasn't crossed under the wire first in 12 career starts and the turf seems to be a white flag in terms of her dirt ability. If you like her, demand a HUGE price.
GIRL GLITTER- Interesting daughter of Glitterman finally tried the weeds last time after being washed off during the summer at Calder. She has plenty of early zip and the trainer has done her no favors of late running her against males and then open sellers last time out. She's going 3rd off a 90+ day layoff, dropping in class, and might be able to outbreak her rivals to the inside.
STORMY LAKE- Dropped in for a tag to get her maiden win after she didn't stack up with MSW runners in Kentucky. Her debut came on the turf at Kentucky Downs and she chased the pace for a bit and then faltered. That form is occasionally tough to use as a gauge for actual ability because of the odd configuration. She seems to be on her game now, has no problem going short and starts for a barn that has been absolutely spectacular at the meet.
MYMISSJULIAC- Fawkes trainee goes 2nd off a layoff and exits a 3rd place effort against similar on the main where she broke slowly and was beaten to the early lead. She's posted two good workouts since that effort and now gets back to the surface over which she earned her only win. A stalk and pounce trip would make her very dangerous.
SPLIT THE CLOUDS- First try on turf for daughter of Mount McKinley. She broke her maiden at first asking on the turf at Tampa way back in late March and her first start off the long break was a tad disappointing. She was, however, very fresh and was given an overly aggressive ride. Now that some of the rust is gone she should be set for a better effort.
REGAL BIRD- Well-bred daughter of Grand Slam was pounded down to 5/2 against similar claimers on the main track and she was never involved. It's now back to the grass, over which she has 1 exacta finish in two tries. She wired the field in her maiden score but has little chance of getting the early edge here, that coupled with the downward spiral she's in makes her tough to back.
MISS SHANGAI- Ward is removing the blinkers from this gal as she has been a pop and stop maven over the last four months. The far outside post is always advantageous for a speed horse but there has to be considerable doubt about whether she can cross and clear. Connections will earn her plenty of support, so she'll be short in the value department.
My pick is STORMY LAKE, but KIT CAT CATON and GIRL GLITTER are good longshots for the exacta.
Good luck!
NT
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