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Old 02-05-2009, 07:39 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philcski
The only 'technical issue' I see in my proposal is listing the willpays before the pool closes- and early on in the betting there will be some odd results with $0 wagered on most of the interests- because most tracks don't have the capability of displaying trifecta willpays. However, with a competent linemaker estimating probables it wouldn't be an issue because whether a name closes at 100-1 or 125-1 isn't a huge deal to 99% of players this would attract.

What they could do as an alternative to showing every name on a rolling basis is show the top 25 or so that have taken the most money and odds on those.
Even with just 23 entries, some horses go off at over 100-1. With 400+ entries, we will have many 1000-1 horses and probably a few 10000-1 horses. A 10000-1 horse would have something like $30 on it going into the last day. Another $150 bet in the last few hours would change that dramatically If you had bet $5 in the hope of seeing a monster $50,000 payday, you would be disappointed to get only $12,500. With half the betting coming on the last day, drops like this will be common.

With 24 betting interests, the last day's betting is reasonably uniform, with the exception of horses that run on the Saturday of the weekend. With 400+ betting interests, the odds will be flying all over the place.

--Dunbar
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar
photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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