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Originally Posted by Kasept
9th: MSW, F&M-4+, 5f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #6 LITTLE MISS JULIEN 3-1
Best Value: #12 Quiet Harbor 8-1
Next Best: #3 Sophisticated Lass 4-1
Super Add: #11 Believeinthemoment 6-1
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This race, IMO, is a much more playable turf sprint than either of the two TURF PROJECT races.
I don't have access to the headon of Little Miss Julien's last race. It appears, from the pan shot, that she was herded/intimidated by the leader late. If this is the case, then not passing a horse that had dueled early in the lane, when she had every chance, can be explained. In any event, I'm not so sure that she has to win, though she'll probably get a perfect setup.
A horse I like, even with just about the worst connections imaginable, is Ellewinkle. She clearly wants to be sprinting on the turf, would've been at least 2nd last out (the turf sprint race) if not for a trouble trip and will be running best of all late.
I'll use her with the favorite in exactas and bet her to win if she's greater than her morning line.