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Originally Posted by miraja2
The post is an obvious problem, but I would be hesitant to toss him completely in any horizontal wagers against this mediocre field. His workout pattern matches almost exactly what he did before his two nice dirt starts last year at CD. Before those two starts he followed a series of slow drills over the CD strip with a bullet 5f work 5-6 days before the race. He has done the exact same thing at Gulfstream this month coming off a layoff (slow 4f work, followed by a slow 5f work, followed by a very sharp 5f work) that he did coming off a layoff in the Clark. There is every reason to think he should be ready to go.
The post position might be too much, or perhaps he really won't like the surface, but when there is every reason to believe that the most talented horse in the field is at the top of his game....I think it makes him too dangerous to toss.
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Oh, I agree he's the most talented in the field. It's just a chance I'm willing to take in this spot. ... I'll probably chicken out and include him and Bullsbay in exotics though anyway! .. But I'll put in at least one pick 4 that singles Arson Squad (and Danger to Society in the 7th)