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Old 01-26-2009, 05:35 PM
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cmorioles cmorioles is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
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OK, lets be objective and see how the card looked. First, 2 of the first 5 were on turf, so we'll ignore those.

Race 1: Radio Relay wins and gets an 81 Beyer. In five previous starts, the horse never bettered 60. The runner up had run high 70s a few times, so it probably makes sense RR improved a lot.

Race 3: Indy's Sonata, Run All Day, and Won Token battle it to the wire and get a 69 Beyer. Two were first time starters, while Run All Day had three starts on surfaces other than dirt, had run mid 60s. It can be argued that if anything, turf and synthetic figures are a little inflated when the figures are that low. The race is a crapshoot, but it is tough to argue for a much higher figure.

Race 5: 1ster Dunkirk romps and gets a 77. He beats another 1ster and Spanish Fortune, a second time starter that Beyered 53 first out. The figure given means despite getting dusted, he improved to a 61.

If you split the variant there, you have to increase the figures of the three races mentioned, or decrease the later three dirt races. While the 7th is a very fast race, if the track had indeed sped up, it is really tough to explain the times and figures you would have to give the last two races.
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