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Originally Posted by eurobounce
I am using data for Gomez and Prado from the past two weeks of riding. Then I am making the number of mounts equal to get that number. That is all. Nothing big nothing confusing.
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That is totally different from what you were saying before. In the beginning part of the argument you were saying that you were figuring that Gomez would continue at a 20% clip.
Now you are saying something totally different. If you are basing your projections on the last two weeks, then you should have said so. You would have saved me a lot of wasted energy arguing. I agree that if Gomez stays as hot as he is right now, then he could beat Prado by more than a couple of wins if he had more mounts. Gomez could easily win 12 races the next week if he has a good week. We all know that.
However, I don't think anyone would say that if Gomez and Prado had an equal number of mounts right now, that Gomez would be ahead by 5-7 wins. The numbers don't show that. The numbers show that Gomez would be slightly ahead(by 2 wins). It's that simple.