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Originally Posted by TheSpyder
Another year about to close. What is amazing about this sport of handicapping horses is you're always learning.
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I learned to respect luck and gut feelings.
Last New Year's Day weekend I watched some replays and picked out a double digit ML horse that I was confident was going to hit the board here in the Bay Area. Just planned to take $150 for one BS/fun play of the weekend at $50 to place and $100 to show.
I had planned to hit the OTB at opening, but my wife asked I head to my mother in law's house to set up the new electronics we gave her for Christmas. I figured I had time to go across the bay and get it done, and come back and get the bet in. Plans went awry with traffic and unexpected tech issues, and I didn't make it to any place to bet until after the race's post time.
On the drive back across the bridge I told my wife, "if that horse I was thinking of betting placed, I probably shouldn't bet the rest of the year."
Of course it placed. I forget the payouts, but it was like $14 to place and $8 to show.
The superstitious part of me knew that it was something of an omen. Then, about six weeks later I had a premonition that Ryan Newman was going to win the Daytona 500. I made a nice chunk of change with a straight bet on Kevin Harvick at about 14-1 a couple years earlier, and planned to put $100 on Newman, $100 on Junior, and $50 on Tony Stewart. A sideshow bet for a weekend of blackjack, and I knew I would probably make up any loss at the blackjack tables. We had plans to make it to Reno where I was going to bet, but work stuff came up at the last minute, and we didn't go. Ryan Newman won, at I think 35+-1 odds.
Another omen. And I knew it.
I ended up having probably the worst year of gambling of my entire gambling life. I lost at blackjack in Reno and Tahoe like five times, and I have historically NEVER lost at blackjack. I caught my longshot tri's on several occasions, but the chalk never missed the board. I didn't collect a ticket of any significance at the Breeders' Cup.
Now I did probably go somewhere between 45-55 and 55-45 on other horses the rest of the year, but way off my lifetime average.
I'm far from giving up gambling, but I should have listened to my gut last New Year's.